Tropical Storm Nadine formed overnight and was sending heavy rains over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Saturday, according to a National Hurricane Center Saturday advisory, and a system in the Caribbean has increased its chances of developing, maybe even later today.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday, Nadine was about 60 miles from Belize City, moving west with winds of 45 mph. Also, forecasters in their 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook saw an upgraded potential for development of Invest 94L as showers and thunderstorms now becoming "better organized" near the southeastern Bahamas.
"Recently received passive microwave imagery also suggests that a well-defined surface circulation could be developing. If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon as later today as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph," forecasters said in the 8 a.m. outlook.
Later this morning, Invest 94L developed into Tropical Storm Oscar, but upon aircraft data, was realized to be a tiny hurricane. A special advisory was issued at 2 p.m., upgrading Oscar to a hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
New at 5 p.m., the "very small hurricane" had hurricane-force winds extending only 5 miles outward from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending out up to 45 miles. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, where hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight.
Tropical Storm Nadine is expected to move inland and weaken to a tropical depression before dissipating sometime Sunday, forecasters said in their Saturday Tropical Weather Discussion. The tropical storm made landfall very near Belize City around 12 p.m. with peak winds of about 57.5 mph. Nadine has continued to lose strength as it moves across the northern portion of Belize.
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What is Tropical Storm Nadine's path and where is it going?
Location: About 80 miles west of Belize City and 105 miles southwest of Chetumal, Mexico
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Present movement: West at 13 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB
As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory: The center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.4 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 13 mph, and a continued westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, forecasters said.
On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Nadine is forecast to dissipate by Sunday.
Watches and warnings: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
What is Hurricane Oscar's path and where is it going?
Location: About 5 miles south of the Grand Turk Island and 435 miles east of Camaguey, Cuba
Maximum sustained winds: 85 mph
Present movement: West at 10 mph
Minimum central pressure: 987 MB
As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory: The center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 71.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 10 mph, and this with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast tonight into tomorrow, forecasters said. A sharp turn to the northeast is anticipated by Monday.
Dropsonde wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. A little more strengthening is possible tonight, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night and Monday.
Watches and warnings: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Cuba Provence of Camaguey.
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Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models
'Hints' are there for tropical development in western Caribbean later this month
In its two-week forecast, Colorado State University meteorologists said there is a 50% chance for tropical development over the next two weeks, from Oct. 15 through Oct. 28.
There's nothing out there now and even with Tropical Storm Nadine forming, chances for development of Invest 94L is fairly low.
However, "There are hints of potential additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are fairly weak," CSU forecasters said.
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"Wind shear anomalies are forecast to be somewhat below normal during the two-week period in the Caribbean, so we believe that there is additional potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean."
A similar forecast was issued by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.
"I am confident that the next week and a half will be free of the conepanics associated with tropical threats to the continental United States," Truchelut said. "However, at longer range, hurricane season is not over." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"There are solid indications that of a couple of weeks of unusually favorable upper-level winds are coming to the Caribbean starting at the very end of October and extending through mid-November.
"With the Caribbean Sea still blazing hot, it’s possible that one or two more named storms could be squeezed out of this set-up. That’s not to say that these would be U.S. landfall threats — history suggests they wouldn’t be — but it’s worth keeping an eye on the Oct. 30 through Nov. 10 window, just in case."
Late-season hits from major hurricanes unusual for Florida
The latest Florida Category 3+ landfall, the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane, occurred on Oct. 25, and a major hurricane has never struck anywhere in the U.S. after Oct. 28, Truchelut said.
"Only about 2% of annual U.S. landfall activity occurs beyond that date: about 20 storms in around 170 years, seven of which were hurricanes. Most late season landfalls are focused on South Florida, with Category 2 Hurricane Kate in the Panhandle a notable exception."
Hurricane Oscar spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer modelscan begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What else is the National Hurricane Center tracking?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin, which includes the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
